On Monday morning, high-ranking executives from clubs across European football will gather at UEFA’s headquarters in Nyon for the Champions League Round of 16 draw. Those from Chelsea will be in attendance as Graham Potter and his players discovered who they will take on in the first knockout stage.
Chelsea head into the draw as group winners. The Blues managed to overcome a difficult start – they lost away at Dinamo Zagreb and drew at home to FC Salzburg – to qualify for the Round of 16 with a game to spare. Although progress did come at something of a cost with Wesley Fofana, Reece James, and Ben Chilwell all suffering significant injuries.
Having replaced Thomas Tuchel after matchday one, Potter has enjoyed his early experience of the Champions League. “The quality of the opponent I would say [is the biggest difference] – and the quality of the team we have. We are Chelsea so the quality of players is incredibly high.
“At Ostersunds [in the Europa League], we were the underdog in every game, so it was slightly different. But I would say it is the level of the team and opponent and individual player that is the difference in the Champions League.”
That level will only increase in the knockout stage of the competition. There are six potential group runners-up Chelsea could face in the Round of 16 and here, we have picked out the two best-case opponents for Potter and his players and the two teams they will want to avoid.
Very few gave the Belgian side hope of escaping Group B when the draw was made. Yet Brugge won each of their opening three matches of the group stage – without conceding a goal – and put themselves in a strong position ahead of Atletico Madrid, Porto, and Bayer Leverkusen.
A goalless draw at the Cívitas Metropolitano against Atleti on matchday four put Brugge on the brink of qualification to the Round of 16 – and their place was secured a week later despite Carl Hoefkens’ side suffering a 4-0 defeat at home to Porto and something of a reality check.
Brugge ended the group stage with a 0-0 draw with Bayer Leverkusen. In the process, they kept their fifth clean sheet in this season’s Champions League, part of which is owed to the form goalkeeper Simon Mignolet. The 34-year-old made 30 saves across the group stage and ensured Brugge hugely outperformed their expected goals against, which per FBRef stood at 10.3 across their six matches.
That level of over-performance from a goalkeeper is simply not sustainable and Brugge’s form did falter during the second half of the group stage. While plenty can happen between now and the Round of 16, which takes place in February, a two-legged tie against the Belgium champions would certainly be favourable for Potter’s side.
Very few gave the Belgian side hope of escaping Group B when the draw was made. Yet Brugge won each of their opening three matches of the group stage – without conceding a goal – and put themselves in a strong position ahead of Atletico Madrid, Porto, and Bayer Leverkusen.
A goalless draw at the Cívitas Metropolitano against Atleti on matchday four put Brugge on the brink of qualification to the Round of 16 – and their place was secured a week later despite Carl Hoefkens’ side suffering a 4-0 defeat at home to Porto and something of a reality check.
Brugge ended the group stage with a 0-0 draw with Bayer Leverkusen. In the process, they kept their fifth clean sheet in this season’s Champions League, part of which is owed to the form goalkeeper Simon Mignolet. The 34-year-old made 30 saves across the group stage and ensured Brugge hugely outperformed their expected goals against, which per FBRef stood at 10.3 across their six matches.
That level of over-performance from a goalkeeper is simply not sustainable and Brugge’s form did falter during the second half of the group stage. While plenty can happen between now and the Round of 16, which takes place in February, a two-legged tie against the Belgium champions would certainly be favourable for Potter’s side.
Eintracht Frankfurt
Chelsea have recent history with Eintracht: the two sides faced off in the 2018/19 Europa League semi-final and only a penalty shootout victory in the second leg at Stamford Bridge saw the Blues progress to the final, where they duly overcame Arsenal without too much trouble.
The two sides have changed significantly in the three years since and Eintracht have gained far more European experience. They won last season’s Europa League and made it out of a tricky Champions League group that also contained Tottenham Hotspur, Sporting CP, and French giants Marseille.
Oliver Glasner’s side have also made an encouraging start to their Bundesliga campaign; Die Adler sit fifth in the table after 12 matches and are only six points behind unlikely leaders Union Berlin. Eintracht would certainly not be easy opposition for Chelsea – especially at Deutsche Bank Park – but given the other potential draw options, a trip to Frankfurt is likely to appeal.
Worst-case scenarios
Paris Saint-Germain
Having overcome Juventus in Turin, it appeared as though Christophe Galtier’s side had top spot in Group H sewn up. But several hundred miles away in Isreal – and with 92 minutes on the clock – Joao Mario fired home Benfica’s sixth against Maccabi Haifa and that ensured the Portuguese giants went through as group winners on away goals.
That was unexpected, although not undeserved given Benfica’s performances across the group stage. And it’s left PSG as the biggest club for Chelsea to avoid when the Round of 16 draw takes place. As always, there are questions over the collective unity within the Ligue 1 giant’s squad and they have become masters of the painful Champions League exit in recent years.
However, the individual attacking quality possessed by PSG ensures they remain a huge threat in the competition. Kylian Mbappe ended the group stage with seven goals; Lionel Messi is playing sublime football after a season of adaptation after leaving Barcelona; Neymar is producing match-altering moments every three days.
Quite whether the trio will still be in sparkling form after the World Cup next month remains to be seen, but there are very few frontlines that strike fear into defences quite like that of PSG. So it’s perhaps best for Chelsea to come up against the Parisians later in the competition, if possible.
Inter
You know full well why Inter are in this section, don’t you? It’s not because they came through a tricky group that included Bayern Munich and Barcelona, who were levered into the Europa League. And it’s certainly not because Simone Inzaghi’s side are sixth in Serie A behind the likes of Atalanta and Roma.
No, it’s fear of the narrative that Romelu Lukaku will hurt Chelsea in a big way. The Belgian striker was signed by the Blues in the summer of 2021 for a club-record £97.5million but after an initial flurry of goals, he struggled for form and his relationship with Thomas Tuchel broke down.
It’s why come the end of last season, and after the club had been bought by Todd Boehly and Clearlake, Lukaku pushed for a return to Inter and that wish was granted. The 29-year-old’s comeback hasn’t quite gone as hoped thus far due to injury, but it may be a very different story for Lukaku by February.
And the prospect of a fully fit and focused Lukaku – still owned by Chelsea but with a point to prove to those at the club – playing a pivotal role in eliminating the Blues from European competition is a prospect no supporter will want to become a reality.
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